US expansion sim · federal and state by state

$— national ceiling. $— a year by Year 10.

Every state is built from its own 2025 USDA data: fed cattle from its feedlot marketings, feeders from its inshipments, hogs, corn and soybeans from state values. States enter in waves. Livestock reuses SPAG021's single federal Packers & Stockyards registration; grain needs each state's licensing where it applies. Turn on the federal price-discovery scenario to see what a win in Washington does.

USDA-measured market · 4 products—

Year-5 annual revenue—

Year-10 annual revenue—

States live by Year 5—

00 · National market

The U.S. opportunity, category by category.

Total addressable market from 2025 USDA data, summed state by state. USDA market is cash receipts (cattle, hogs) or value of production (corn, soybeans). Addressable GMV is what can trade on SPAG021: fed cattle from feedlot marketings, plus the feeder trade into feedlots, which USDA receipts do not count. Cull cows, calves sold off the cow and interfarm sales are left out. Revenue columns assume every addressable dollar trades on SPAG021, so they are a ceiling, not a forecast. The rollout below shows the path toward it.

Category	USDA market	Addressable GMV	Take · launch / after proof	Participant value · yr	Revenue · launch	Revenue · after proof	At 10% share

Pricing follows the Nebraska sims: fed cattle 5 → 10 bps, feeder cattle 35 → 50 bps, corn and soybeans 15 → 25 bps, market hogs 5 → 10 bps (feeder pigs 35 bps). The 10% column uses launch pricing.

01 · Rollout

Click a state to change its wave.

Wave 1 starts Year 1, Wave 2 Year 3, Wave 3 Year 4, Wave 4 Year 5, Wave 5 Year 7. Grey = not planned. Each click moves a state to the next wave.

Wave 1 · Y1Wave 2 · Y3Wave 3 · Y4Wave 4 · Y5Wave 5 · Y7Not planned

Assumptions

Applied in every state after it goes live.

Livestock target share (feeders, hogs)30%

Fed cattle target share10%

Grain target share (corn, soybeans)20%

Years from go-live to target6

Federal: cattle price-discovery minimums enacted

Enacted in year4

Fed cattle target once enacted40%

Fed cattle go national the year it's enacted

Pending bill; not law. It would require large packers to buy a regional minimum through approved methods, which include open multi-party bidding systems like SPAG021.

02 · Revenue

Annual SPAG021 revenue, by wave.

Each product ramps on an S-curve from its go-live month. Go-live lags: livestock 9 months in the first state, then 3 months plus 2 for brand-inspection states (the federal registration is reused); grain 8 months in the first state, then 4 plus 4 where the state licenses grain dealers. Fed cattle add 3 months for packer onboarding.

Year 3—

Year 5—

Year 10—

10-year cumulative—

03 · State by state

Market, ceiling and regulatory profile.

Sorted by 100% revenue ceiling. Federal = livestock covered by SPAG021's Packers & Stockyards registration. Brand = state brand-inspection law. Grain license = state licenses grain dealers. Indemnity = state grain indemnity fund.

State	Wave	USDA market	Fed cattle	Feeders	Hogs	Corn	Soybeans	Revenue · 100%	Revenue · Y10	Regulatory

Not modeled, so upside: calf and feeder sales between farms inside the same state, cull cows and bulls, and other grains. The fed/feeder split uses each state's own feedlot marketings; states outside USDA's feedlot table share the national small-lot and other-state totals in proportion to their cattle marketings.