Silicon Prairie Ag TechSPAG021 · THE THIN MARKET
The Thin Market · Fed cattle

Most fed cattle are priced off a trade their seller never sees.

Packers and feedlots still bargain over price, but for a shrinking slice of cattle. Everything else is priced by formula off that slice. In 2005 it was half the market. In 2025 it was 17.8%, the lowest in USDA's 21-year series.

Leverage

A small trade with a long lever.

In the week to Nov. 2, 2026, every head sold for negotiated cash set the price for 3.2 more head sold on formulas and grids. So a dollar shaved off the cash bid doesn't stay in the cash trade.

3.2×
head priced off each head that actually negotiated
Shade the negotiated cash bid by$1.00/cwt
Paid by sellers in the cash tradePaid by formula and grid sellers who never bid
Nebraska fed cattle · per year$0
Felt by cash sellers$0
Passed to formula sellers$0
Nebraska feedlots marketed 5.54M fed cattle over the last 12 months (USDA NASS Cattle on Feed). At about 1,450 lb, that is ~80M cwt, so every $1/cwt moves about $80M a year. The pricing mix (22.7% cash, 61.3% formula, 11.0% negotiated grid, 5.0% forward contract) is USDA data for the week to Nov. 2, 2026. Forward contracts are left out of the formula-and-grid share.
When the price goes dark

Too few buyers, and USDA can't publish the price at all.

USDA withholds a regional cash price when fewer than three buyers report, or when one buyer has more than 70% of the volume. For the week ending Sept. 13, 2026, three of the five fed-cattle reporting regions published no cash price.

Texas · Oklahoma · New MexicoWithheldConfidentiality rule
KansasWithheldConfidentiality rule
ColoradoWithheldReport withheld
NebraskaPublishedOne of the last price-setting regions
Iowa · MinnesotaPublishedStill reporting

Run USDA's rule yourself.

Change who shows up to buy this week. Watch the regional price disappear.

Buyers bidding in the region this week4
Largest buyer's share of volume45%
REGIONAL NEGOTIATED CASH · LIVE STEERS · ILLUSTRATIVE
$240.00
4 buyers reporting · largest 45%
Feeds the formula price for ~3 in 4 fed cattle in the region.
Anchors what feedlots can pay for feeder cattle.
NO REPORTABLE TRADE
Hogs

One hog in ninety sells at a negotiated price.

Fed cattle look liquid next to hogs. In 2025 about 1.1% of barrows and gilts were bought on negotiated cash. About 41% were never bought at all, because packers own them. The rest are priced by formulas and contracts.

Thicken the market

Every lot on SPAG021 is a price-setting trade.

In a SPAG021 sealed auction, every qualified buyer in range bids at once and the price is set in the open. Slide up the share of Nebraska fed cattle sold that way and watch the lever shorten.

Share of Nebraska fed cattle sold through SPAG021 sealed auctions10%
Negotiated cash lots todayAdded by SPAG021 sealed auctionsOne mark = 4 lots of ~120 head, per week, Nebraska
Price-setting share0%
Head priced off each cash head0×
Price-setting lots · week0
SPAG021 fed revenue · 5 bps$0
Modeled. The baseline cash share is the 2025 national 17.8%; Nebraska's own share is not published as an annual figure. Lots assume a 120-head average across Nebraska's ~106,500 fed cattle a week. Leverage counts formula and grid cattle (95% of the market less the cash share) per negotiated head. SPAG021 revenue is the listed share of the $17.81B Nebraska fed-cattle market at the 5 bps launch take. A federal Cattle Price Discovery and Transparency Act, which would set regional minimums for negotiated trade, has been proposed but is not law.
Sources. National negotiated cash share 2005 vs 2025 and the Sept. 2026 regional withholding: USDA AMS series as reported in AgriNews, Oct. 16, 2026 (opinion column by R-CALF USA). Weekly pricing mix and USDA's withholding rule (<3 buyers or one buyer >70%): RaisedBeef Markets, from USDA AMS LM_CT reports. Hog purchase types, 2025 year to date: USDA AMS LM_HG weekly barrows & gilts report. Nebraska fed marketings: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed. Bill status: Northern Ag Network, Dec. 13, 2025.